UPDATE: As of 3/11 7:42 AM AKST veteran musher and 2022 Iditarod Champion Brent Sass (#14) has scratched in Eagle Island due to periodontal health.
As of Saturday morning (7 AM) on 3/11, the current race is shaking up to be anyone's game. Jessie Holmes is your current leader on the trail but he is closely followed by Ryan Redington, Richie Diehl, Nic Petit, and Pete Kaiser. All 5 of these teams have already taken their mandatory 8 hour rests on the Yukon River and are pushing their way up to Kaltag. Don't rule out the team run by Brent Sass, as he is finishing up their mandatory 8 hour rest at Eagle Island. With a large field this close, strategy is going to play a large part in who wins this race this year.
Kaltag is the last stop on the Yukon before teams make their way west to the Bering Sea Coastline. Kaltag is also the convergence of the Southern and Northern routes. It is a significant strategic point on the map for any race year, so let's dive into some key takeaways from this race and what Kaltag and beyond might have in store for these teams.
Let's first talk about the front of the pack that we previously mentioned. Jessie Holmes and Nic Petit both took ~4 hour rests between Grayling and Eagle Island and blew through the checkpoint at Eagle Island. This likely means they'll be taking another 3-4 hour rest between Eagle Island and Kaltag OR push all the way through to Kaltag and take that 3-4 hour rest there. Redington, Diehl, and Kaiser all rested at Eagle Island for ~4 hours and will be able to make the 60 mile push up north to Kaltag and likely take another ~4 hour rest before they make the long push to Unalakleet (first checkpoint on the coast).
This brings us to Sass, grabbing a full 8 hour rest at Eagle Island. He may be out of the top 5 as far as the trail goes, but he is going to likely be able to make up some time on these other teams. Here is how I think it might play out. Complete the 8 hour rest at Eagle Island and push hard up to Kaltag. Based on the previous information and how some of these teams are running I would expect Sass to blow through Kaltag and take a rest somewhere outside of Kaltag on his way to Unalakleet. And then the race is on in my opinion. Those top 6 teams will likely be very close together as they move their way through the Bering Sea Coast.
So what does the coast have in mind for these teams as they look to be the 51st winner of the Iditarod? Well for reference, the Bering Sea Coast is notorious for its unpredictable weather patterns and general harshness. 50+ mph winds and blowing snow causing white outs are not uncommon in these parts. However, from the look of the forecasts for the week ahead and some intel from our sources on the ground in Nome, we believe that the final ~250 miles from Unalakleet to Nome are going to be fast - very fast. Just how fast, you ask? Record breaking.
Now I won't go as far as to say they will be faster than Mitch Seavey in 2017, but John Baker's southern route record of 2011 is surely in jeopardy. Temps have cooled along the coast making running conditions ideal and along with the fact that winds are always blowing out there, the trails are running like a sheet of ice. We're predicting a 1st place team to arrive in Nome under the burled arch late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.
We'll see if the weather holds but if it does it will sure be a record setting year. We can't wait to see how it plays out!
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